🌏 The second China shock

China's trade strategy just triggered what economists are calling a 'second China shock'—but this time, it's the Global South bearing the impact. From Indonesia's garment workers to Latin American manufacturers, local industries are being undercut by a $1 trillion export flood. This is the kind of economic shift that changes everything.

This is our last newsletter for 2025. I'm taking a few weeks to recharge and recalibrate so we can bring you even sharper coverage of the Global South in 2026. We will be back in your inbox on 14 Jan.

Happy Holidays to you & yours, wherever you are ☀️☃️

Warm wishes,

Deepa

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China's $1 Trillion Surplus Triggers “Second China Shock”: China's trade surplus has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, driven by a flood of exports into developing nations. China is redirecting goods and factories to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America to circumvent US tariffs. Why it matters: This "second China shock" is undercutting local industries, causing job losses in sectors like Indonesia's garment industry and creating intense competition for developing economies. (More) 

Sudan's RSF Seizes Key Oilfield in Strategic Blow to Government: Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the Heglig oilfield, the country's most important functioning oil facility. This halts production and severely impacts government revenues, which depend on fees from oil transiting from South Sudan. The bottom line: This victory grants the RSF control over a vital economic asset, strengthening its negotiating position and potentially shifting the war's front line, while crippling the army's ability to finance its operations. (More) 

200,000 Flee as DRC Peace Deal Collapses: A US-brokered peace deal to end 30 years of conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo has collapsed days after being signed in Washington. Renewed fighting between M23 rebels and the Congolese army has forced 200,000 people to flee their homes in the east. Stunning stats: At least 74 people have been killed as M23 rebels advance on the strategic town of Uvira, near the Burundi border, highlighting the rapid failure of the agreement and the intractability of the conflict. (More)

US Military Pressure on Venezuela Intensifies: Tensions between the US and Venezuela have escalated following deadly US military strikes on boats in the Caribbean and a significant naval deployment. The Trump administration justifies the attacks, which have killed at least 87 people, as a crackdown on "narco-terrorists." Be smart: While framed as a counter-drug operation, analysts suggest the ultimate goal is to destabilize Nicolás Maduro's government, risking a wider conflict with significant regional and geopolitical consequences. (More) 

Microsoft Pours $17.5 Billion into India's AI Future: Microsoft has just committed $17.5 billion over four years (2026-2029) to build AI infrastructure, develop talent, and enhance sovereign capabilities in India, including a new data center region in Hyderabad by mid-2026. (More)

Mauritius Telecom Invests $434M to Become Africa-Asia Digital Hub: Mauritius Telecom is investing 20 billion Mauritian rupees ($434 million) over three years to modernize its infrastructure, including new submarine cables and expanding its data center, aiming to position Mauritius as a digital corridor between Africa and Asia. (More) 

Qatar and Brookfield Launch $20 Billion AI Infrastructure Venture: Qai and Brookfield have formed a $20 billion joint venture to develop AI infrastructure in Qatar and internationally, aiming to establish a regional hub for high-performance computing. (More) 

Saudi Arabia and Qatar Deepen Economic Integration with Major Projects: Saudi Arabia and Qatar have strengthened economic ties, with trade increasing 634% since 2021, and signed agreements for a high-speed rail link, enhanced investment promotion, and expanded energy cooperation. (More) 

ExxonMobil Accelerates Guyana Oil Production to 1.5 Million BPD: ExxonMobil is expanding oil production in Guyana's Stabroek Block, projecting daily output to reach 1.5 million barrels by 2029, solidifying the nation's position as a major global energy producer. (More)

France Signals Green Light for EU-Mercosur Trade Pact: France's ambassador to Brazil indicated his country could approve the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, a significant policy shift that could unlock the deal ahead of a planned signing ceremony on December 20. (More) 

Brazil's Senate Approves Constitutional Limit on Indigenous Lands: Brazil's Senate approved a constitutional amendment to enact the "marco temporal" thesis, restricting Indigenous land rights to territories occupied on October 5, 1988, directly challenging a Supreme Court ruling and setting up an institutional clash over land rights. (More) 

Ghana Slashes Policy Rate by 350 Basis Points: The Bank of Ghana cut its monetary policy rate by 350 basis points to 18%, marking the third aggressive reduction this year as inflation fell to 8% in October and the cedi appreciated 32.2% against the US dollar. (More)

Cuba Allows Foreign Firms Direct Foreign Currency Operations: Cuba's government announced foreign companies can now operate directly in foreign currencies, a move towards partial dollarization aimed at attracting investment and addressing the peso's devaluation. Be smart: This policy aims to attract foreign capital and stabilize the economy amidst the peso's crisis, but could lead to a selective dollarization benefiting businesses over the general population. (More)

Invest in India's Expanding Dialysis Network: Nephrocare Health Services Ltd. is launching an IPO from December 10-12, 2025, to raise ₹871 crore for expanding dialysis clinics and debt repayment. (More) 

Morocco Launches $1 Billion Gas Infrastructure Tenders: Morocco's Ministry of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development has launched international tenders for a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) and a national gas pipeline network, with FSRU applications due by January 30, 2026. (More) 

Consultancy Opportunity for Vietnam's Energy Transition: GIZ is seeking a local consulting firm to assess the potential of AI and digital applications for advancing Vietnam's energy transition, with expressions of interest due by December 18, 2025. (More)

UK Universities Limit Admissions for Bangladeshi, Pakistani Students: Several UK universities have restricted student recruitment from Bangladesh and Pakistan due to tougher visa rules requiring universities to keep visa refusal rates below 5%. The bottom line: This follows new Home Office rules, impacting students from countries with higher refusal rates. (More) 

US H-1B/H-4 Visa Appointments Delayed by Social Media Vetting: Many H-1B and H-4 visa appointments for Indian applicants are rescheduled to March 2026 due to mandatory social media screening. Be smart: This expanded vetting, effective December 15, requires applicants to make social media accounts public and will reduce daily interview capacity. (More)

Systemic Racism Leads to Delayed Care for Black Pregnant Women: Black pregnant women in the US frequently experience delayed or dismissed care due to implicit bias, leading to dangerous outcomes. Mercedes Wells, one of the women impacted, says advance research of the hospital and documentation during the medical encounters are important. (More) 

Beyond BMI for South Asians: Many South Asians with normal BMI are "skinny fat," carrying high visceral fat levels that increase their risk for type 2 diabetes and heart disease. You should prioritize waist circumference or consider a DEXA scan for risk assessment. (More) 

The Poison in the Supply Chain: An investigation into lead poisoning in Nigeria reveals hazardous battery recycling practices linked to major American auto companies. (More) 

The Paradox of a Promised Land: Uganda's Karamoja region remains impoverished despite billions in aid, trapped in a cycle of political promises and systemic failure. (More)  

The Hidden Worlds in Our Food: A study of fermented foods from Nepal, Ethiopia, and South Korea uncovers vast microbial ecosystems that may hold keys to human health. (More)