Last week, we stripped away the noise to focus this briefing strictly on what matters to the Borderless Operator: Money, Power, and Visas.
This week’s geopolitical chessboard proves exactly why.
We are watching the real-time death of global neutrality. From Washington weaponizing Chile's visa waivers to Panama seizing its canal ports from Chinese operators, the era of frictionless trade is officially over. Physical infrastructure and digital borders are the new battlegrounds, and the Global South is being forced to pick sides.
To build leverage in a polarized world, you need absolute clarity on where the capital is flowing and who controls the gates. Here are the signals you need this week.
Warm wishes,
Deepa
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Macro Lens
The New "Chokepoint" Diplomacy
From physical shipping lanes to digital infrastructure, the U.S. and China are forcing the Global South to pick sides.
This week, Panama seized critical Canal ports from a Hong Kong conglomerate , while Washington threatened to strip Chile of its Visa Waiver status over a proposed Chinese submarine cable. Simultaneously, the global trade board was flipped: the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump's broad tariffs, prompting him to instantly impose a new 15% global tariff under a different law. Asian nations that had just pledged hundreds of billions in investments for lower rates are now scrambling. (Read)
The Signal? The era of neutral global supply chains is over. Physical and digital trade routes are active geopolitical battlegrounds, and "borderless operators" must now price in sudden tariff shocks and sudden infrastructure seizures across both Latin America and Asia.
The Big Story
Panama's Great Power Play at the Canal
The News: The Panamanian government has seized control of two critical ports at opposite ends of the Panama Canal from CK Hutchison, a Hong Kong-based conglomerate. (Read)
Why it Matters:
The Legal Cover: The takeover follows a Panamanian Supreme Court ruling that deemed the Chinese firm's concession "unconstitutional". (Read)
The New Operators: Panama's Supreme Court annulled the concession and transferred temporary operations to subsidiaries of European shipping titans Maersk and MSC. (Read)
The Proxy War: This is a major victory for Washington, which has relentlessly pressured Panama to reclaim the strategic waterway and counter Beijing's expanding economic footprint in Latin America. (Read)
The TBS Take: For exporters shipping through the Americas, European operators now control the ultimate trade chokepoint. Washington has proven it can and will dismantle Chinese infrastructure concessions in its backyard, weaponizing local courts to do so.
Business & Tech
Venezuela's Stealth Privatization: Venezuela approved a radical reform to its Hydrocarbons Law, potentially reducing state participation in oil revenue to just 35-45%. This de facto fiscal privatization is a seismic shift from its long-standing nationalist policy, opening massive doors for private international energy capital. (Read)
China's Tariff Play in Africa: Starting May 1, 2026, China will implement zero tariffs on exports from 53 African countries. As U.S. tariffs throw Asian supply chains into chaos , Beijing is aggressively pulling the continent closer to cement its position as Africa's apex trading partner. (More)
The Chessboard (Geopolitics)
Mexico's Power Vacuum: Mexican security forces killed Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera, leader of the massive Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). The cartel immediately retaliated by burning vehicles nationwide, risking a succession war that threatens security for the upcoming World Cup and disrupts global fentanyl supply chains. (Read)
Sahel Realignment: Algeria and Niger signed major energy and mining agreements, signaling a strategic pivot. Algeria is aggressively filling the strategic vacuum left by declining French influence to anchor regional stability without Western involvement. (Read)
Kenya’s Russian Recruitment Crisis: A Kenyan intelligence report revealed that over 1,000 Kenyans have been recruited by "rogue" employment agencies to fight for Russia in Ukraine. At least 89 are on the front lines and 28 are missing in action, exposing a grim new pipeline of human trafficking. (Read)
Opportunity Engine
Visa Alerts
Chile/USA: The U.S. threatened to remove Chile from its Visa Waiver Program due to a proposed Chinese submarine cable project. The Chilean government has temporarily suspended the project. (Read)
UK Blanket Ban: The Reform UK party proposed a blanket visa ban for citizens of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Eritrea, Syria, and Sudan. This would halt all visa categories for these nations. (Read)
China: Effective February 17, 2026, China implemented a visa-free entry policy for ordinary passport holders from Canada and the UK to ease business travel. (Read)
Capital & Tenders
Argentina Waterway Concession: Bidding closes February 27 for a 25-year concession of the Paraná-Paraguay Waterway, a strategic infrastructure project requiring an estimated $10 billion in investments. (Read)
Nigeria Mini-Grid Funding: The Rural Electrification Agency and Lotus Bank launched a N100 billion revolving credit facility offering up to N8 billion per developer for renewable energy mini-grid projects. (Read)
Data Trends
African Currency Divergence
While the Libyan Dinar plummets to 10.50/USD on the black market due to political infighting, Nigeria's gross external reserves just soared to a 13-year high of $50.45 billion and Ghana's Cedi appreciated 40.7% following disciplined deficit financing. (Read)
Deep Dives
🇵🇰 Geo TV - Pakistan Is Not Collapsing. It's Adapting: A contrarian view on how the country has built a resilient, low-equilibrium shadow economy driven by bottom-up innovation. (Read)
🇷🇼 KT Press - Before a Son Can Lead Rwanda, Must He Apologize for His Father?: An argument that the son of former president Habyarimana must answer for his father's regime before returning to politics. (Read)
