Macro Lens
Catching the Shrapnel
Washington and Beijing are fighting over who controls the supply chain. The Middle East is still on fire. And the Global South is standing in the middle of it, taking the hits.
The IMF and World Bank are warning about what they're calling a "triple whammy" for emerging markets right now: energy prices climbing, the dollar refusing to come down, and a wall of Chinese exports squeezing out anyone who wanted to manufacture their way up the ladder. China's $276 billion trade surplus isn't just a number — it's effectively deindustrialising Southeast Asia in real time, killing local ambitions in textiles and EVs before they can get off the ground. At the same time, the West is quietly slamming the door on talent and mobility from the South.
Read the signal. The old lifelines — aid, market access, the US education pipeline — are closing one by one. If you're building in the South, you're building local now. (FT: the triple whammy hitting emerging markets)
- Deepa, Editor-in-Chief
THIS WEEK'S 3 MUST-READS
🔹 The US is rejecting 81% of student visas from Nepal. The tech talent pipeline to Silicon Valley is broken → What it means for operators
🔹 USA Rare Earth just bought one of Brazil's biggest critical minerals miners — and Brasília is furious → See who's alarmed
🔹 Four Gulf states just declared force majeure on oil and gas shipments → The Hormuz shock
The Big Story
The 81% Wall
News: The US refused 35% of F-1 student visas in 2025 — the highest rejection rate in a decade. The numbers for the Global South are far worse. Indian applicants were rejected at 61%. Nepalese students at 81%. (VnExpress: 1 in 3 international students denied)
Why it matters:
The talent pipeline is broken. For a young engineer or founder in South Asia, the US education-to-employment route was the default path for two generations. That door is now mostly closed. Silicon Valley is being walled off from the exact talent pool that built it.
US universities are bleeding. International tuition props up American higher education. Block the students, and you blow a hole in the balance sheets of institutions that were already wobbling.
TBS Take: This isn't a visa story. It's a redistribution. The talent that would have gone to Stanford is going to end up in Dubai, Riyadh, Singapore, and Bangalore instead — and the capital is going to follow it. If you're an operator in those cities, this is a tailwind you should be actively positioning for.
Business & Tech
🚗 Cairo becomes Valeo's Brain: French automotive tech giant Valeo just made Cairo its largest global AI R&D centre. The Egyptian hub now produces 50% of the company's entire software output, run by a local team of over 3,000 engineers. This is what winning the talent arbitrage looks like — a European multinational quietly deciding its best engineers are in North Africa. (Daily News Egypt: Valeo deepens Cairo AI presence)
🪨 Washington Grabs Brazilian Rare Earths: USA Rare Earth, backed by Washington, has acquired Serra Verde — one of the largest heavy rare earth deposits outside Asia. For the US, it's a critical minerals win and a direct hit against Chinese supply chain dominance. For Brazil, it's a sovereignty crisis. Brasília is openly asking how a strategic national asset ended up under American control, and the political blowback is already starting. (Hora do Povo: rare earths and sovereignty at risk)
⚠️ Hormuz Breaks: Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, and Bahrain have all declared force majeure on oil and gas shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz. The chokepoint isn't just disrupted — it's legally non-functional for large parts of the Gulf's energy exports right now. Expect an immediate acceleration in bids for alternative corridors: pipelines, Red Sea routes, anything that doesn't depend on a single waterway. If you're in infrastructure or logistics in the region, this is the week the project list gets rewritten. (Al Jazeera: Gulf force majeure declarations)
The Chessboard (Geopolitics)
Iran's Beijing Connection: Iran's Revolutionary Guard used a high-resolution Chinese spy satellite — the TEE-01B — to target US bases during the recent conflict. Beijing is now in an awkward spot with its Gulf Arab partners, who just watched Chinese hardware get pointed at Americans from Iranian soil. (FT: the satellite behind the strike)
Israel Recognises Somaliland: In a historic move, Israel became the first UN member state to formally recognise Somaliland's independence. This is a cold, calculated Red Sea play — Tel Aviv is buying intelligence and military positioning against the Houthis. Somaliland gets the legitimacy it's wanted for three decades. Mogadishu is incandescent. (Mada Masr: the Somaliland recognition, explained)
Tigray Unravels: Ethiopia's 2022 Pretoria Agreement is coming apart. The TPLF is restoring its pre-war administration, citing federal funds that never arrived. If this escalates, it drags the Horn of Africa back into the conflict that killed hundreds of thousands between 2020 and 2022. (Reuters: Tigray party restores pre-war administration)
Opportunity Engine
💰 Capital (Guyana): The Government of Guyana is opening up a $40M gas bottling company and a $300M fertiliser plant to private investors, with a guaranteed 10% annual ROI on the table. Expressions of interest close May 15, 2026. (Kaieteur News: Wales gas bottling and fertiliser plant)
🏗 Infrastructure (India): The Delhi Jal Board has floated a $286 million tender for the Wazirabad water treatment plant overhaul — civil works, new reservoirs, full SCADA system. If you're in water infrastructure or industrial engineering, this is the one. (Hindustan Times: Delhi Jal Board tender)
⚡ Grid (Chile): CGE Transmisión is tendering 50 separate electrical grid projects in Chile, with a combined investment pool of $204 million. Open call for heavy construction and engineering bids. (El Morrocotudo: CGE grid expansion tender)
Number to Know
$276 billion. China's trade surplus with the ASEAN bloc hit a record $276 billion in 2025. That number, more than anything else, explains why Southeast Asian industrialisation is stalling — you cannot build a domestic textile or EV industry when Chinese overcapacity is landing on your docks at that scale. (FT: the $276B overhang)
Deep Dive
Awate - The Anatomy of State Failure: A forensic analysis using Eritrea as the case study. The argument: nations don't collapse overnight — they unravel slowly when the feedback loop between local communities and the central government breaks. (Awate: state failure in Eritrea)
Havana Times - Whose Face Belongs on the Money: Cuba's new banknotes feature women from its history, and Havana is fighting about which women. The controversy reveals everything about who gets to write the official story of a nation, and who gets written out. (Havana Times: the controversy over Cuba's new notes)
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